Goodbye Ukraine… we barely got to know you…

As a Moscow-born Russian-Ukrainian with family from all over the young nation that desperately wanted to, but now will probably never get a chance to grow up, I find myself in a state of confused shock… On the one hand, I can’t believe I’m watching these events unfold, as my country of birth has launched a full-scale military assault on my ancestral homeland. On the other, I see in hindsight the dead-cold logic, and almost inevitability of this reality. This isn’t new. This isn’t unprecedented. It wasn’t unexpected. It’s not even shocking, except on a personal level. This was in the making for 30 years, planned and executed in cold blood. It goes far beyond Ukraine…

The West has collectively failed in its Russia policies since the early 1990’s. Ukraine has failed to build a respectable, well-governed nation. And Putin has succeeded in breeding fanatical nationalism that rivals Nazi Germany. He’s capitalized on all the things the West has thrown at him, turned it into internal strength, solidified patiently over decades. And now he’s ready. He will do what he wants, when he wants, where he wants, and how he wants. And he will still have full support at home for as long as he needs to, and enough abroad as well.

As much as all the Western media can continue to hysterically shout about sanctions and make statements, post photos of protests, and hastily make new commitments and alliances, this is already done… It’s over. Yes, the fighting will continue for a while. People will die on both sides. But in the bigger picture, Ukraine is finished, Russian Empire is back, the world is once again cleanly split along geopolitical lines (pending China’s next move…) and Putin is staying in power for the foreseeable future, war criminal or not.

How did we get here?? How is this possible in 2022? What is the world missing? For the first, we need a quick walk through main events and turning points in history, starting in 862AD. For the other two, one just needs to read Putin’s address to the nation, announcing the “Special Operation”. The problem I see with every single analysis of the situation is the skimming over the former to get to the latter, thus missing vital context. Yes, Putin manipulated the facts (or rather conveniently omitted the problematic ones), but the people outside of Russia, and the new generation of Ukrainians, do not understand how to read between the lines and fill in the blanks with all the details from both ancient and modern history that he only alluded to.

You’ve also got to understand the prevailing mentality of the whole country… This is the Tsarist / imperialist entitlement developed over a millennium and only briefly renamed or relabeled under Soviet rule. It’s the mentality of the Big Brother. It’s the mentality of a nation that has conquered a huge part of the entire eurasian continent. Of a people that are used to come and take, to absorb others. Of a people that are used to totalitarian rule. And above all, people who are patient. The country can lose millions, burn its capital city, and still win. It took Peter the Great a couple decades to build the original empire, back in the day…

It’s not just Putin — Shoygu, Lavrov, Peskov — they have been there since the beginning, paving the way. They are the old guard from the Communist Party elite families that never went away and has no intention of doing so now. And the Oligarchs? Most of them have the same ties to the Soviet days through friends and family. They grabbed what they could when it all went to hell, and were either allowed to keep it in return for loyalty, or run, when the ones with real power returned and took over again.

Let’s start with history. The key chronological events are not hard to find — they are all on Wikipedia these days. Most people just don’t bother with them, either out of laziness, or carelessness, or deliberately. It does not matter. Let me try to connect the dots as simply as I can to set up the backdrop for what is happening now. So let’s take a brief walk through time, please indulge me.

862 : The first Rus state is formed, when Swedish Vikings are “invited” to rule Novgorod in what is now northwestern Russia. Rurik is the original head of state, though the land is made up of city-states, similar to ancient Greece.

879 : Oleg, caretaker of Rurik’s son Igor, takes over Kiev/Kyiv, the modern capital of Ukraine, by force.

945 : Olga, Igor’s wife, begins a ruthless campaign against neighboring tribes to avenge her husband’s assassination and to consolidate power in the region. Beginnings of Kievan Rus.

988 : Kievan Rus is formally allied with Byzantium through marriage. Rus becomes Orthodox Christian.

The next 100–150 years see the Rus at the peak of their power, as Kiev presides over regional campaigns, including the eradication of the Khazar Khaganate, while supplying Constantinople with fierce mercenaries.

1132 : Kiev loses control over other Rus city-states, as its heyday turns into a century of strife, with various Rurikid princes fighting for supremacy.

1147 : Remote town of Moscow is founded by one of the Rurikid princes.

1169 : Prince of Vladimir sacks Kiev, as balance of power permanently shifts.

1223 : The Mongol invasion begins. Divided Rus princes are crushed at Kalka.

1237 : Kiev is destroyed. Novgorod makes peace to focus on its northern wars. Moscow is overrun, but starts building relationships with the Golden Horde.

1300 : The head of Russian Orthodox Church moves to Vladimir from Kiev.

1362 : Kiev is taken by Lithuania. What is now Ukraine is partly Lithuania, partly Muscovy, partly Crimean Tatar, and partly Cossack no man’s land.

1478 : Novgorod becomes part of Muscovy.

1480 : Russia defeats the Golden Horde and gains full independence.

1547–1584 : The reign of Ivan the Terrible, first true Tsar of Russia.

1598–1613 : The Time of Troubles. Rurikid dynasty falls. Poland-Lithuania pushes into the Muscovy lands, opccupies Moscow in 1610. Romanovs are elected as the new ruling family, Poland is repelled.

1648 : Bogdan Khmelnytsky starts a revolt against Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The Center is in Chernigov region of north-central Ukraine, which he unites with the autonomous Zaporizhian Sich.

1654 : After years of struggle, Khmelnytsky signs the Treaty of Pereyaslav with the Russian Tsar, giving Moscow control over Ukraine in return for military support against Poland.

1657 : The beginning of the Ruin. After Khmelnitsky’s death, a civil war ensues for control, resulting in the splitting of Ukraine into Cossack, Polish, and Ottoman lands. The former remain largely autonomous under the protectorate of Russia.

1700 : The Great Northern War between Sweden, Russia, and Poland results in Polish demise.

1709 : Sweden is crushed at Poltava in Eastern Ukraine by the forces of Peter the Great of Russia, which becomes an Empire and expands its boundaries into Ukraine and the Baltics.

1768–1774 : Russo-Turkish War ends in Russian victory, liberating large portions of the Balkans, and opening up waves of immigration into the Ukrainian Steppe and Crimea.

Here ends a thousand years of old Ukrainian history. Kiev’s reign lasted for the first two centuries, followed by a long period of division, both internal and external. Two centuries of Russian imperial rule followed, where the people of Ukraine were gradually marginalized further and further, as a “little brother” nation to its northern neighbor. In 1775 the Zaporozhian Host was abolished. This marked the final transition from the free spirit of the Sich and its mercenary legions to a fully tied-down and rigid life. This is the same point in history as the American Revolution, by the way…

19th century saw Ukraine divided between Russia and Austria, post Napoleonic Wars. In 1853, Great Britain and France defeated the Russian Empire in Crimean War, while throwing the dying Ottoman Empire under the bus, and allowing Prussia to really flex its wings at the expense of Austria. WWI and the Russian Revolution in 1917, followed by the Civil War, resulted in reinstated Poland taking back much of Western Ukraine, while the eastern part formed the Ukrainian SSR.

WWII had Ukraine fighting on both sides, and mostly under German occupation. It was a really dark time in countless ways… But in the end, Russia prevailed and after 1945 the entire Ukraine became part of the Soviet Union. Remnants of Ukrainian Liberation Army were hunted down and exterminated.

1954 : Celebrating 300 years of “Reunification”, Moscow gives Crimea to Ukraine.

1991 : Following years of Perestroyka and rise of anti-communist movements, the remnants of the old Party leadership attempt a failed Coup in Moscow. The USSR dissolves, spawning 15 new countries, including Ukraine, which keeps Crimea (although Russia keeps “renting” Crimean ports for its Black Sea fleet). The same year, Iraq invades Kuwait, spurring Operation Desert Storm — the first truely modern military operation / foreign invasion.

1994 : First Chechen War is a complete disaster for Russia, after the small, but oil rich Islamic republic in the Caucasus proclaims independence.

1999 : Second Chechen War has Russia return control over the region. Putin becomes President. Same year, NATO intervenes in Kosovo War by bombing and deploying ground forces to Yugoslavia (Serbia)

2001 : Following 9/11, United States and its allies invade Afghanistan.

2003 : US and allies invade Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein.

2004 : The Orange Revolution in Ukraine replaces the original government that was largely backed by the eastern (pro-Russian and heavily industrial) part of the country. Ukraine shifts toward the West and begins openly voicing its opposition to the Putin regime in Russia.

2008 : Pro-Russian Abkhazia and South Ossetia break away from Georgia, who tries a military takeover, but is blasted back by the Russian militrary.

2009 : Georgian president Saakashvili is deposed and later legally prosecuted

2010 : After much political turmoil, outgoing president Yuschenko declares one of Ukraine’s most controversial WWII-era figures, the ultranationalist leader Stepan Bandera a Hero of Ukraine. Yanukovich becomes president, briefly returning the pro-Russian East to power.

2014 : Yanukovich is removed from office for corruption. Two regions of Eastern Ukraine declare independence. A war erupts, but quickly ends in a stalemate. Russia annexes Crimea using the already present military (that never went anywhere…) and supports the breakaway regions covertly.

2015 : US intervention in Syria. Saakashvili lands in Ukraine and becomes governor of Odessa.

2016 : Russian intervention in Syria

2021 : Former president Poroshenko is charged with treason for dealings with the separatist regions. Tensions continue to grow. US and allies leave Afghanistan after 20 years of occupation, and the country collapses under the return of the Taliban. Ukraine renews efforts to integrate into NATO.

And so we come to this…

Putin pulls the Russian military to the borders of Ukraine and begins an invasion. His speech lists the following reasons:

• The Soviet Union collapsed suddenly and left a geopolitical void that destabilized the world, allowing for fragile political entities to form
• The US and its NATO allies have taken advantage of this void for the past 30 years, dictating its policy using military force and occupation of sovereign nations (Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria)
• Ukraine has time and again (in fact for almost a millennium…) shown lack of political stability and has been in a de facto state of war for 8 years now
• Ukraine’s political swings destabilize the region and threaten the security of Russia, especially in the face of continuing talks of NATO expansion
• Russia has been rebuilding the structure of the Soviet Union for the past 20 years and is ready to make its move to draw hard boundaries with the West
• Russia has learned from the US/NATO interventions in Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria and will use similar tactics in Ukraine

And this is the core of it all. The rest is just words targeted at specific nationalistic groups. The USSR is back, and v2 is here to stay. Ukraine is just the most logical stage for a blatant statement through show of force to the rest of the world. Putin is not interested in the past 10–20 years. Sanctions and all. Speeches and accusations… None of it matters. He has all the support he needs — even the hardline Chechens, once hellbent on killing every last russian invader themselves, are now his most loyal budyguards. He’s going back to 1946. Or 1775. And we all have no choice but to deal with it. Welcome to the brave new (or old?) world…

But what about the world’s unified response? What about the devastating sanctions? The collapsed Rubble?

You are dealing with the people that are justifying most of their actions using WWII rhetoric — a war that saw 30 million perish over 4 years in battles and to starvation… The West has no frame of reference for this. The scale is beyond comprehension. The mentality that comes with it as well…

And that has to be factored into the response to all the countermeasures against the invasion. This is not a short-term thing that can be reversed quickly. But if it’s not, you need to consider the long-term effects on the whole world, not just Russia…

• Europe is largely dependent on Russian oil and gas, with no viable alternatives
• Russia covers an extremely valuable chunk of the world’s commercial airspace, which it just closed…
• Together with friendly Belarus and Kazakhstan, it forms a very robust closed economy with plenty of natural resources and strong agriculture

What will happen in 6 months? 12 months? Will Europe magically discover alternative fuels? Will planes continue to fly around Siberia, incurring millions of dollars in extra costs? Will Turkey continue to block all naval traffic in the Black Sea? Will the great Elon Musk personally fill the void left by the absense of Russian money in the world of international finance? How will the US react at midterms? And above all… what will China do next?