The world is mad…
I fail to comprehend the reality of our current situation. I go to sleep and wake up with the same thoughts — what the hell is wrong with us?? What am I missing? Yes, I understand that everyone has a smartphone and access to the internet now. Yes, I’m well aware of all the various statistics dealing with our overall level of intelligence. But really, we can do better. We should do better. It’s 2022 for Pete’s sake.
In my previous articles, I’ve tried to deal with the matter of Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine as objectively and systematically as I can, given most of my family is from Ukraine, I was born in Moscow, and I’ve lived in the US for 20+ years. I’ve tried to ask questions about facts, rather than gossip and blatant propaganda, but I keep getting hammered with the usual “your are a Russian Troll! Ukraine must and will be victorious on the battlefield!” responses over and over…
First off, if I were a Russian troll, wouldn’t I at least choose a better pseudonym that Tim f@cking Piatenko?? Google me — there’s only one person in the world with that name… Literally the worst cover ever. You can find everything about me with a few clicks. Shouldn’t I have called myself something less obvious than my unique actual name? Maybe Taras Shevchenko to look more generically legit to the Ukes? Or Bruce Dickinson to blend in better with the western audience?
With that aside… I’m having a really hard time making sense of some of the exchanges I’m having with people. Isn’t it objectively better to find compromises and save more people’s lives, rather than throw more bombs and bodies at the problem and be left with a country in ruin? I get it if you are one of these analysts or reporters in London and Indonesia with no actual understanding of or connection to Ukraine or Russia. But actual Ukrainians?
I’ve never argued that Russia should win, only that they will eventually win. They always do… And just because they don’t win in the way you would have thought they should, doesn’t mean they don’t get what they wanted… All I’m really saying is that behind the fog of war and partisan campaigns of misinformation on all sides, the reality does not look good for the Ukrainian people. Maybe it does for you, sitting in London or New York, but I’m not worried about you. I think that in fact, we are making the future for my people quite bleak in the interest of bigger geopolitical struggles… that are themselves questionable at best.
With that preamble, here is what my conversations have felt like:
Look at the maps over time, look at the distribution of people and resources. How is this good for Ukraine? How do you not see that Russia already grabbed what it wants? No — Russia will not stop until it’s consumed all of Ukraine… I really don’t believe that was ever the objective, as you can see from my other articles… Yes it was! And then it’s the Baltics, Poland, and the rest of Eastern Europe! It must be stopped. And we have already stopped it! Ukraine will prevail and push the occupants out of their lands! Ummm, okay, but the map has stayed practically the same for six months now? No! We are crushing the Russians — Crimea is next!
Ok, fine… but at what cost? 30–40% drop in GDP already. 40% of energy infrastructure damaged, some critically. Inflation at 25% overall, with some categories like fruit and vegetables reaching staggering 60–80% levels… Billions and billions of dollars in debt, with no clear means to repay the loans. No matter! Ukraine must fight to the last man, woman, and child against this aggression! Okay… but Russia can still reach any point within Ukraine with their missiles at any time. They’ve turned your lights off, and winter is about to hit…
No! We are winning! Kherson has been gloriously liberated, and we are marching on! Okay. but Russia has been making gains in the East, where the whole thing started… Do they really need Kherson? And they moved all of their forces out without a fight, so maybe, just maybe it was agreed upon? No! We liberated it! and they will never get Odessa! Odessa?? I remember saying recently that they never wanted to take it… along with Kharkiv, and maybe even Kherson… Yes! Odessa! You were wrong! They will never get it! We have Kherson now. And we are marching on to Crimea! I’m pretty sure that’s not going to happen… and what you should really be worried about is Russia gaining more ground around Donetsk and Lysychansk, but whatever…
But even the West is saying this can’t last… You don’t actually have your own weapons, all your resources are cut off, and the power grid is failing. And it sounds like there are already negotiations taking place behind your back… Insider channels in Ukraine have been talking for at least a week about a possible US-Russia deal over Kherson before it became public… And strangely, in the CNN interview with Amanpour released on November 10th, and therefore recorded earlier, Zelenskyy says he did not expect Russians to leave Kherson… hmmm, they hadn’t yet said they were leaving back then…
Russian propaganda! Our forces are gloriously victorious! And we will all freeze and die before we see peace! The West must help us! Zelenskyy forever! What about China? Sounds like they may want to take back Taiwan… The West can’t fight both at the same time. No! China hates Russia! It’s just waiting for its chance to occupy all of Siberia, didn’t you know? And yes, the West has to and will help us, because Russia is Nazi Germany reincarnated. And evil has to be destroyed, and we will be victorious and prosperous — glory to Ukraine!
And as another aside, we are now also talking about a potential double war of NATO vs Russia and NATO vs China?? Seriously? And we are openly talking about using nuclear weapons, too? What the hell is happening? Hey my fellow Gen X’s, remember when you were growing up, laughing at the Boomers that were hiding under their desks in nuclear drills? Because they were so silly… we know now it was all a show, and mutual annihilation assures us we’ll never actually do it, right? But anyway, back to Ukraine.
So it does not matter that Russia has gained control over of the most valuable territories, did it quickly, and has held on to them. It does not matter that Ukraine’s manufacturing capabilities have been severely undercut. That the electric and water grids are on the brink of collapse, and Ukraine hasn’t even seen first snow yet. That the agricultural output is completely uncertain — everyone seems to be talking about the grain that’s already on the ships, trying to get out. But what about the prospects for next year? What will be the harvest? It also does not matter that the prices are through the roof and rising and that the country is falling more and more into debt. Nothing matters. We will be victorious! Glory to Ukraine!
You know, Russia was in a similar position at the end of 1941… Except that the Germans were stopped near Moscow and were stalled at Stalingrad. Russia had over 100 million people safely behind the front lines, cranking out tanks and airplanes. There were 10 more time zones to pull resources from! The Caucasus with all of its oil was still there. The Central Asian republics could supply food. There were vast resources in Siberia to build everything needed. Yes, it also relied on Western aid. But in addition to, not in place of its own… Ukraine is tiny in comparison. No part of it is safe. All of it is within reach of a bomb. And most of its essential resources are already taken. We are where Russia would have been, had Stalingrad actually fallen, and that is not a good place to be…
And yet, we have the perfect mix on all sides to keep this fire going… like I said before, not the first time Ukraine is caught in the middle of much greater power struggles among empires and gets thrown under the bus. Not the first time their struggle for self-identity ends in Ruin… But humans appear to be hellbent on learning only from their own mistakes first hand, instead of the same exact mistakes of others. So full steam ahead, I suppose… let’s send them more weapons! Let them draft every last person and throw them at Putin’s guns. Let’s continue to ignore the economic reality. F@ck it, we are doing it live!
