Update on Ukraine
So here we are at the end of November. A lot of things have happened in the past couple of months, and as usual, most of it has been distorted in the media… Following the recipe I documented in a previous article, I’ve collected enough triangulated information worth noting, as we head into the winter.
Damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure and internal politics
We have to address the elephant in the room first. When the first round of strikes took place in early October, we could still argue about Russia’s goals, their ability to keep the attacks up, and the immediate as well as long-term consequences. But at this point, things are pretty clear. Ukraine is pretty f*cked. Not only was Russia able to continue the strikes, despite multiple articles claiming for months that its military machine is about to come to a grinding halt due to the shortage of ammunition, Russia in fact ramped up the attacks in stages (as they said they would from the start…) and systematically weakened almost half of the power grid. Russia did not simply pound Ukraine’s power stations time after time — they knew exactly when and where to hit the grid to create a cumulative snowball effect that is now becoming obvious to the rest of the world.
Yes, Russia understands Ukraine’s grid very well. It knows what people inside Ukraine know themselves — that the power lines as well as water pipes are ancient, poorly maintained, waiting to collapse under pressure at any minute. Moreover, Russia has demonstrated a detailed knowledge of the hubs in this grid, which may not look like much to an outsider, but are critical in maintaining the overall stability of the system. They’ve delivered their blows slowly, systematically, giving Ukraine time to pause and realize what’s happening and where this is all heading at each stage. But, alas, Ukrainian government is not concerned with realities. It only cares about its image on the world stage, backed by the western powers… It looked away over and over, tried to dodge the issue, and raised generic warnings without actually addressing any of the problems.
For a while, instead of dealing with the consequences of the strikes, the government tried to spread misinformation about their full effect, providing conflicting numbers that seemed to give hope that it’s air defenses were working much better than expected. But with time, it became obvious that their own numbers did not add up. And the effects were clear. They even tried the stunt with their surface-to-air missile that missed its target and went off course and into neighboring Poland. Fortunately, this was quickly shut down by NATO, especially after the ample evidence posted online from the scene clearly showed a Ukrainian air defense missile, similar to others that failed to find target and instead landed in residential areas of their own cities. At some point, if you yell and wave your hands long enough, you just end up looking like an idiot, with no one taking you seriously…
One of the underlying problems that the West continues to ignore is the internal politics. By now many have become aware of the ongoing power struggle between the two Z’s — president Zelensky and chief commander Zaluzhny. The former is a PR figure, a somewhat silly caricature of himself (he was as a famous comic with a TV show that showed himself “accidentally” becoming president) He made the decision to stay and “lead” the country early on, and has been doing what he does beast — maintaining his image. The latter is a no-bull 4-star general who knows what is actually needed in war. When Zelensky performs another public stunt at the UN and then “orders” the forces into another counteroffensive, Zaluzhny is there to tell him how things will really go down.
Far fewer realize that there’s a much deeper political division within Ukraine, and one that goes back far longer. It’s the disconnect between the central power in Kyiv and the regional and local governments. In the capital, this is exemplified by the so far mostly restrained opposition from the former boxer-turned-mayor Klychko. Being in the same city, the middleman that would be the regional governor is eliminated, and the blame game between Z and K is more and more out in the open. Witness the latest attempt by the federal government to battle the aftermath of blackouts with the ridiculous tents put up all over the country, including Kyiv. They have become one of the biggest memes on Telegram and beyond, as people have been posting their unfiltered reactions to these “centers of perseverance” that themselves often have no light or running water… They are simply big tents put up in the streets instead of school gymnasiums or something sensible. Half of them were not connected to any utilities. Some were simply closed. One has killed three people, who suffocated trying to burn a stove inside.
But that’s nothing compared to the tensions between Kyiv and regional governors, which is in large part responsible for the war in the East part of the country in the first place. In the US, we are used to seeing this in the aftermath of every hurricane, when the city, state, and federal governments all blame each other for not having the right response or providing the right funding. Ukraine takes this to a whole new level, ofter combining the problems of federated government with widespread corruption. Local powers are always trying to profit off of local industries, be it coal mining or aerospace technologies, and Kyiv is always struggling to grab a hold of at least some of the money. So when the man at the top says “go”, the regional governors think “but what’s in it for me?” There’s an ongoing witch hunt, labeled as a fight against corruption, where Kyiv digs up dirt on regional politicians and tries to put them away to establish direct control over the industry. It’s not very different from what routinely happens in Russia, except that the central government is not nearly as powerful.
Enter western aid. This money flows the exact opposite direction, starting with the office of the president and ending up in regional hands on the ground. The struggle is now going both ways! Kyiv has its hands on a direct source of funding and is finding new and creative ways to pocket as much of it as possible, while the rest of the country, including the military fighting the actual battles, sits and waits for the proverbial “trickle down”. The down side to it is the potential leverage the western powers have on the president, since it does not take much of an oversight to record at least the most blatant schemes. And so the chess game continues, while the kids on the front lines keep dying…
Battlefield realities
Ukraine took Kherson. Eternal glory to Ukraine! Except that they did not take it… they were given it without a fight. Why?? No one really knows, but even before it happened, insider sources from within the office of the president wrote that the US is directly pressuring Zelensky’s government to resume talks and accept current realities. Moscow and Washington have denied this over and over, shrugging off the meetings CIA and Russian intelligence heads held in Turkey to “nuclear containment” and such. But the timing smells fishy. Russia left suddenly, quickly, and peacefully. Ukraine barely fired a round. And now that the great city has been retaken, there’s rising talk of mass evacuation of remaining citizens due to practically nonexistant life support infrastructure. Both sets of forces have been relocated. The dust settled, and we have once again found Ukraine divided neatly in left vs right bank of the Dniepr.
Meanwhile, even the steadfast ISW has been starting to note the Russian slow but steady advance in the East. If (when) Bakhmut falls, the entire frontline may collapse. But there’s more. The last round of strikes against infrastructure included railroad junctions and depots in South-eastern parts of the country, controlled by Kyiv. Together with the damage to the electrical and water distribution systems, this has significantly complicated Ukrainian army’s ability to keep supplies coming, which is especially critical, given that none of them are local. Things are getting so bad, that even the major western media outlets have started talking about the dire situation there, instead of the usual “Russia has lost everything and everyone and is on the run, about to collapse as a nation” rhetoric. People are dying left and right, in the trenches, face down in the mud, like in WWI… And there’s no light at the end of this tunnel, since the lights have been turned off everywhere.
I’ve said this again and again — Russia does not need Kharkiv or Kherson. They need Donbas and the south connector to Crimea. They may or may not want Odessa. But the bulk of the resource-rich part of the country that was never happy with Kyiv’s central government, is already under their control. If the rest of Donetsk region is taken, the war is basically over. Which brings us to the matter of the overall ability of Ukraine to go on.
Ukrainian economy
The last 9 months have only hidden the ugly truth that Ukraine’s economy is shaky. Donbas wasn’t considered to be the industrial hart of postwar USSR for no reason. Losing it in 2014, along with the warm and sunny Crimea, was a huge blow to the UA’s economy. Losing the rest of the south was even worse. Having the energy grid almost collapse is not helping. The numbers may not be extremely accurate, but GDP is likely down 40% or more and falling still. Ukraine is deeply in debt — one more ugly truth no one wants to talk about. The financial aid it’s getting is mostly in the form of loans that need to be repaid, but with what? Food prices are nearly double for some staples, such as vegetables, and even then the supermarkets are mostly empty. The country has been living off of borrowed money, while firing other people’s guns this whole time. And when there is local money to be had, it’s quickly pocketed by the officials. This is not sustainable in any way shape or form, and we have not even gotten to the really cold part of the year… And even if Ukraine managed to get some of its riches sold, it can’t ship them out.
NATO / EU ongoing support
Yes, the West keeps pledging support. But even the mainstream media has started to question the sustainability of this flow of aid. Much of the promised funds come with strings attached. Not only are they loans, but also conditions on receiving them. And some of those are impossible to comply with in today’s reality. US has a bigger problem now — China. And sending rockets to Ukraine means not sending them to Taiwan. Sure, we can view all this as the new global Cold War, East vs West. And yes, the big guys can keep it up for a very long time. But Ukraine is unfortunately not one of them… Whatever happens in the big picture, it’s the one that will suffer. The EU may have dodged the bullet this winter, but what about next one? Will they keep buying 3x as expensive gas from their dear partners in America? Why are they all lining up to visit China then? How long before the coalition begins to unfold? And even a few cracks would be enough to sink Ukraine at this time, given its sorry state of affairs. And don’t get me started on the whole refugee debacle… Yes, it was great to finally unite in saving blond and blue-eyed “europeans” for once. But that was before everyone started doing the bookkeeping and realized they have their own crises to deal with.
Situation in Russia
And meanwhile, despite all the various prophecies, Russia just keeps going. No end in sight for its missiles. New shiny drones from Iran. Oil flowing happily to India and China at 30% or more of previous levels. Trade with China, India, and Turkey is flourishing, more than replacing Germany. Partial mobilization complete. No revolution of any color. No mass desertion. No collapse of the economy. Just people living their lives as usual for the most part. Yes, there’s a lot of negative, but that’s what the Russians are used to. Ukrainians keep yelling about how they are different. How they are European. But in reality, the only difference is that most Russians have made peace with the nature of their reality long ago, while the Ukrainians have for centuries been trying to avoid it. They want to be something they are not and never will be. And so, as we like to say, we have what we have.
