Why Ukraine, why now?

I have recently been accused by a good friend of mine, whom I respect and consider to be highly intelligent, of not being logical in my take on what’s happening in my ancestral homeland… So let me try to provide some details to support my conclusions, though the intertwined, nonlinear nature of the logic here makes it a bit difficult. Unfortunately, my subconscious brain is far more efficient than my conscious mind, but I’ll do the best I can.

Part 1: Why Ukraine?

Despite much rhetoric regarding the close historical relationship between the two people, and obvious regional proximity, this is not about DNA and linguistics. It is, however, definitely about geography and geology. Yes, as described in excruciating detail in my previous story, there is a long and complicated history between our people. But until the 19th century, it was not ethnic or nationalistic. These lines were drawn after the 18th century brought forth global imperial expansion by the European powers. But I digress…

Before the industrial age, the strategic importance of what we call Ukraine today was three fold:

1. A gateway between Europe and the Central Asian steppe. From the dawn of time it was both an important trade route between East and West, as well as a favorite passage for the nomad invaders.
2. Access to the Black Sea. For centuries the coveted prize of Greeks, Tatars, and Turks, finally wrestled away from the latter by the newly minted Russian Empire in the 18th century, though almost lost to the British soon after…
3. The breadbasket. Ukraine always had some of the best agricultural lands in the world. It’s what drew the Vikings there in the first place.

After the Industrial Age took hold, Ukraine quickly also became known for its natural resources. I won’t go through the whole list (see this for example), but the most important ones are:

• Coal, with over 90% in Donbas
• Iron, with 60/88 deposits in south-eastern Ukraine
• Manganese, top 10 in the world, mostly in the south
• Uranium, highest in Europe
• Graphite, with 20% of the world’s reserves
• Titanium, highest in Europe
• Lithium, which was recently found in… Mariupol! (see this)

That’s quite a list in 2022! Some of the most valued materials, including strategic ones, like Lithium, that may change the world of the 21st century.

And of course on top of that, Ukraine is the main transit of oil and gas from Russia, as well as the Caucasus, to Europe.

If you are still not convinced that the south-east of Ukraine is a very very lucrative spot, even for a country like Russia, which already possesses a wealth of resources of its own, then you can stop reading right now.

Now, let’s talk about the Black Sea for a second. Besides being an important link between Europe and Asia (remember the Byzantine Empire and its struggle to fight back the Ottoman Turks?) the Black Sea is the home of one of Russia’s Navys. It’s been there for a long time, and its not going anywhere. It’s the gateway to the Mediterranean, and is not something anyone in their right mind would abandon.

Now, let’s remember that the south-east of Ukraine has been historically under heavy Russian influence. If you need convincing, here’s the 1897 census of the Russian Empire showing the prevalence of Russians in Ukraine:

Forget Crimea — that was never Ukrainian to begin with… It went from Tatars to Turks to Russians. I visited a few times in the 80’s — no one there spoke Ukrainian…

And let’s also remember that after the 1991 breakup of the USSR, the resource-rich East originally held power in Ukraine for quite some time. The west has been trying to erase that uncomfortable reality by snuggling up to NATO, but neither they nor the major EU powers ever viewed the young nation with anything but contempt and distrust until February 24, 2022…

And this leads us to…

Part 2: Why now?

It’s been 30 years since the demise of the USSR. Over 100 years since its inception. Over 20 since Putin first came to power. No, he’s not a lunatic — that would be nice… He’s a cold-blooded killer. A calculating machine. An evil genius. And also just the tip of the iceberg. He’s not alone. He’s not a madman. He’s not failing in his old age. He’s doing exactly what he wanted to all along, and the whole world is playing his game.

Chechnya was his way is. Georgia was a warmup. Kazakhstan a rehearsal. He’s using the Bolshevik playbook. He’s learned the lessons of history written by Lenin and Stalin. He’s been watching China. And he’s finally ready. Maybe he was a couple years ago, but then COVID hit… And there were Olympics and the World Cup to put on before that. There were final touches that were also missing in the restoration of the old Soviet vision. But now all the pieces are there:

1. He has the support from the population. It’s as solid as one could wish for in this situation.
2. He has Europe totally dependent on his oil and gas (yeah yeah, give it a year…)
3. There’s discord in the “West”. Nationalism and Conservatism is flourishing across Europe — look at the age distribution of the latest French elections results, if you are in doubt… Generation X, which is coming into its prime in terms of power it wields, chose the far Right. Serbia is on the verge of going back to war against its neighbors. Hungary just told the rest of EU where they can go. Turkey is playing all sides. Even Israel is choosing a waiting game, as it tries to figure out where to go next…
4. The world’s food supply is largely intertwined with the agricultural output of Russia-Belarus-Ukraine-Kazakhstan. Whole nations will starve soon, thanks to the sanctions agains Russia. Will they blame Putin or Biden?
5. And back to resources, we are on the verge of a potential energy revolution that is only limited by our ability to store it… And guess who’s got the thing that can make or break the future? Well, we went over that above. If the world has to stay on coal, Ukraine has it. Nuclear? Ukraine has it. Solar etc? You might need that thing called Lithium…

Still not convinced? Okay, fine, let’s look domestically. Putin is not getting any younger. This is the time to make a move and build a lasting Empire, if there ever was one. Wait longer, and maybe the support at home starts to shift. Or Ukraine makes some moves that make an all-out war practiclly impossible. Why not now?? If not now, then when? And what best way to find a successor than a military operation? Remember, he’s KGB. He knows how to judge the right “character”. Who followed Stalin? The defender of Stalingrad. It’s in a Hollywood movie with Jude Law, in case you missed it.

But Russia is losing so many soldiers, right? How can he get over that? Won’t the people see?

Again, this is a country that has been through this over and over and over again. It’s accustomed to patience. Accustomed to mass loss. It wasn’t just WWII — Crimean war was a total disaster, but guess who kept it in the end? Peter the Great was losing to Sweden for a decade, before he finally turned the tide. The whole damn country was under Mongol yoke for 250 years. Don’t you see? This is not about now or the next few months. This is about the next decade and more.

And no, Russia does not need Western Ukraine. Not even Kiev/Kyiv. It knows exactly what it wants and what price it’s willing to pay for it. And it will get it. You may think the price is too high, but, as the Dude once said, it’s just like your opinion, man.